Commercial Market Outlook 2021–2040
The Boeing Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) is our long-term forecast of commercial air traffic and airplane demand, including global and regional analysis. The CMO has been the industry standard for insights into the future of air travel since 1961 and annually provides valuable analysis to airlines, suppliers and the aviation community.
The 2021 CMO reflects that the global market is recovering largely as Boeing projected in 2020. Demand for domestic air travel is leading the recovery, with intra- regional markets expected to follow as health and travel restrictions ease, followed by long-haul travel’s return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 to 2024.2021 CMO forecast highlights include:
- While health and regulatory dynamics will continue to shape the near-term outlook, Boeing’s analysis of market dynamics shows that commercial airplanes and services are showing signs of recovery and resilience.
- Availability and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines will continue to be critical factors in recovery of passenger air travel. Countries with more widespread vaccination distribution have shown rapid air travel recovery, as governments ease domestic restrictions and open borders to international travel.
- Long term, market fundamentals and resilience drive demand through 2040 for more than 43,500 new airplanes valued at $7.2 trillion.
- The global commercial fleet will surpass 49,000 airplanes by 2040. China, Europe, North America and other Asia-Pacific countries each account for about 20% of new airplane deliveries, with the remaining 20% going to other emerging markets.
- The global freighter fleet in 2040 will be 70% larger than the pre-pandemic fleet due to sustained demand tied to expanding e-commerce and air freight’s speed and reliability.
Click on the interactive display below for more data and analysis about the evolution of the global fleet through 2040, with interactive visuals showing industry evolution by market segment as well as regional dynamics and growth profiles.